106 consenting Amazon shoppers across eight states in Kroger's operating footprint — who linked their Amazon account and shared full order history. Every SKU, every order, every date.
Verbatim survey questions · Kroger named on any one = Loyal
| PRI | Bet | What we do | Measured by |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Beauty shop-in-shop pilot | Convert 20 stores to a premium HBA destination — prestige brands, tester bars, loyalty pricing. Target the 94.7% of loyalists already buying Beauty on Amazon at idx 143. | Beauty category $/loyal household/quarter — +25% yr1 |
| P1 | Kroger Refill (auto-ship) | Launch sub-and-save for the replen 45%: paper goods, OTC meds, pet food, cleaners. Prime-style cadence with fuel-points on every reorder. | Active Refill households, Amazon replen SoW displacement |
| P2 | Kroger Boost+ for loyalists | Loyalist-only Boost tier — 2-hour delivery, free Fresh & ready-meals. Close the 42% Amazon Fresh/WF trial that's pulling loyalists into premium grocery exploration. | Loyalist Boost+ adoption, food basket retention |
| P2 | Simply Home expansion | Extend Simply Home brand into the Home Goods long tail — textiles, organizers, kitchen basics. Defend the 27.74% home wallet. | Private-label home share, cross-category basket |
| P3 | Rx + HBA bundle at pharmacy | Offer an HBA basket-builder at Rx pickup — the 94.7% Beauty penetration makes this a natural tie-in. | Rx-trip HBA attach rate |
| DON'T | Chase Electronics or Office & Auto | These are 20% of loyal Amazon wallet but structurally Amazon's moat (idx 125 / 160). Marketing investment here won't move selection-driven behaviour. Toys & Sports (idx 204) only if family positioning is on the table. | — |
| PRI | Bet | What we do | Measured by |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Grocery trial campaign | Hyper-local $20-off-first-$60 to the Amazon Fresh / WF 34% penetrated households across the 8-state Kroger footprint (KY, IN, TN, WV, MI, GA, TX, OH). Kroger Pickup positioned as faster than Prime. Push pickup not delivery to drive store relationship. | First-trip acquisition, 30/60/90-day repeat rate |
| P1 | Fuel-points on gift cards | Convert Amazon gift-card purchases (idx 36) by doubling fuel points on 3rd-party gift cards for first-time buyers. Own the unsolved gift moment for non-loyal. | Non-loyal gift-card attach at checkout |
| P2 | Meal-kit acquisition | Low-commit 3-meal kit ($19) with a Kroger card enrollment. Captures Amazon-default households who've never built the habit. | Kit → cardholder conversion, 30-day basket |
| P2 | Pharmacy switch offer | $10 gift card for an Rx transfer. Anchor the household with the stickiest SKU in retail. Amazon Pharmacy is still a small blip. | Net new Rx transfers, HBA attach post-transfer |
| P3 | Beauty retention hook | Once acquired, push loyalist-tier Beauty pricing at card activation. Bring them into the discretionary fight early. | Beauty SoW among new card activations |
| DON'T | Broad-reach mass media | These are behaviourally-specific households. Untargeted mass media will over-spend on already-loyal or already-lost. Use addressable + geo. | — |
106 consenting Amazon shoppers across eight Kroger-footprint states (KY, IN, TN, WV, MI, GA, TX, OH). 19 self-identify as Kroger loyalists (named Kroger on any one of three survey signals: primary retailer, loyalty program membership, or past-year shopping); 87 do not. Raw panel rows were de-duplicated on ID before user-level partitioning. Full Amazon order history shared, resolved to SKU-level.
April 2024 – March 2026. 24 months. All per-user metrics annualized by dividing by 2. Cancelled orders excluded from every calculation.
Pool-weighted share: Σ(category $) ÷ Σ(total $) per cohort. Product Price used rather than Order Total to avoid line-item double-counting.
Amazon's own Category field plus a priority-ordered regex on product name for the ~5% NaN rows. Other is now explicitly broken into Electronics & Tech, Gift Cards, Toys & Sports, Media & Books, Office & Auto.
Loyal share ÷ Non-loyal share × 100. 100 = parity. Above 110 = loyal over-indexes. Below 90 = loyal under-indexes.
Revealed preference, SKU-level, consent-based — the ground truth of how these households split wallet between Kroger's region and Amazon.
| Brand | Product | Subcat | Orders | Shoppers | Spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Ordinary | Caffeine Solution 5% + EGCG eye serum | Skincare | 2 | 2 | $16 |
| Herbivore | Bakuchiol Moon Fruit retinol-alt serum | Skincare | 1 | 1 | $62 |
| Mario Badescu | Moisturizing Rose lip balm | Skincare | 3 | 1 | $20 |
| Nip + Fab | Glycolic Acid Fix cleansing pads | Skincare | 3 | 1 | $44 |
| EQQUALBERRY | Bakuchiol plumping serum | Skincare | 2 | 1 | $36 |
| Redken | Acidic Bonding Concentrate shampoo | Hair care | 2 | 1 | $66 |
| Davines | This Is A Medium hairspray | Hair care | 2 | 1 | $78 |
| Clairol Pro | Beautiful Collection gray solutions dye | Hair care | 3 | 1 | $24 |
| Marc Anthony | Grow Long Biotin leave-in conditioner | Hair care | 3 | 1 | $21 |
| Infina Essentials | Purple shampoo & conditioner set | Hair care | 2 | 1 | $50 |
| CHI | 3-in-1 hot smoothing dryer brush | Hair care | 1 | 1 | $95 |
| Neutrogena | Makeup remover wipes (2×25ct) | Cosmetics | 2 | 1 | $19 |
| Milani | Understatement retractable lip liner | Cosmetics | 2 | 1 | $16 |
| Rimmel London | Exaggerate waterproof eye definer | Cosmetics | 2 | 1 | $14 |
| Glamnetic | Cold Hearted short almond press-on nails | Nail | 1 | 1 | $49 |
| Schick | Hydro Silk dermaplaning tool (3ct) | Hair removal | 3 | 2 | $18 |